I’ll explain how early IRS filing data shows larger average refunds, give the key numbers and quotes from the IRS and experts, note why filing volume matters, outline other factors that can affect refund size, and describe what this might mean for households as the season progresses.
Early IRS filing data show the average tax refund is higher at this point in the season than it was last year, with a clear jump in both percentage and dollar terms. The agency reported that as of Feb. 6 the average refund was $2,290, up from $2,065 a year earlier, and that more than $16.9 billion in refunds had been issued. That combination of a higher mean refund and a modest increase in total dollars gives immediate scale to the shift.
“The average tax refund is 10.9 percent higher so far this season compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS.”
The IRS itself summarized the pattern by saying, “Average refund amounts are strong,” in its weekly filing report, a concise description that matches the raw numbers. At the same time, the agency noted that filing activity is tracking roughly in line with last year. That matters because similar return volume reduces the chance that the bump is a statistical artifact caused by fewer returns concentrating higher refunds in the early window.
“Average refund amounts are strong,” the IRS said in its latest weekly filing report.
When return counts fall sharply, averages can be misleading. But the IRS also reported, “The number of returns received so far this filing season is tracking close to the same pace as the prior year,” which supports the view that the uptick reflects larger refunds rather than a thin sample. Comparable filing activity plus higher average refunds points to genuine growth in refund size this season.
“The number of returns received so far this filing season is tracking close to the same pace as the prior year.”
Still, experts warn to be cautious about early conclusions. “Early data [for refunds] can be deceiving,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, wrote in a tax season guide, noting that processing restrictions and the timing of refundable credits can reshape averages later in the season. Historically, averages can surge early and then moderate after mid-February when more returns and credits flow through the system.
“Early data [for refunds] can be deceiving,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, wrote in a tax season guide.
Beyond timing and processing rules, several structural factors can influence the size of refunds. Wage growth affects withholdings and taxable income, withholding adjustments made by employers or taxpayers change year-to-year, and the calendar of refundable credit payments can front-load or delay larger returns. Any combination of those factors could be contributing to the current increase in average refund amounts.
The IRS numbers show more than a one-time percentage jump; they display concrete dollars returning to households. The 10.9 percent increase in the average refund and the 1.9 percent bump in total refund dollars issued so far suggest that, if trends hold, more withheld income will land back in bank accounts this spring. For many households that translates into short-term cash flow to tackle credit card bills, medical expenses, or to add to savings.
It is also important to remember that a refund is the return of withheld income rather than a net gain in after-tax earnings. Rising refunds could indicate changes in withholding behavior rather than changes in tax liability. Whether this pattern persists will depend on how mid-season processing and the full flow of returns alter the averages reported in weekly IRS updates.
The IRS will continue updating its weekly filing statistics, and those updates will reveal whether this early bump in refunds is temporary or lasting. For now, the data at this stage are clear: average refunds are higher than they were at the same point last year, and the reporting window shows both percentage and dollar growth tied to actual processed returns and issued payments.
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