On the eve of New York City’s primaries, the Democratic contests in the 10th and 13th districts have flipped conventional expectations and put establishment figures on the defensive, with Israel policy and intra-party turnout shaping likely upsets.

Things Go From Bad to Worse for Dan Goldman on the Eve of the NYC Primary

The 13th District primary has grabbed attention as a high-stakes face-off between an incumbent and a far-left challenger, spotlighting divisions within New York Democrats. That race exposed how insurgent, ideologically extreme challengers can surge and then stall as voters reassess direction and electability. It also reminded us that primary dynamics in the city are volatile and that polls and markets can swing quickly in short windows.

Less flashy but equally consequential is the battle in the 10th Congressional District, where Dan Goldman, the incumbent and former House Democrats counsel in President Trump’s first impeachment inquiry, has been under serious pressure. Brad Lander, a former city official and progressive standard-bearer, has consolidated support in a district where the Israel war has become a decisive litmus test. The contest has evolved into a proxy fight over who best represents the district’s Jewish voters and how candidates handle Israel-related policy.

Goldman has tried to position himself as supportive of Israel while also navigating criticisms of that position within liberal circles, but that tightrope has made him vulnerable. Lander, backed by influential progressive figures, has framed himself as more critical of Israel’s actions and more aligned with calls for change in policy. That framing appears to have resonated with many primary voters who prioritize the issue and view Goldman as too firmly in the pro-Israel camp.

Polling swings in mid-May raised alarms for Goldman when one survey showed him trailing dramatically, with Lander at a commanding lead and a sizable undecided bloc. Internal and public numbers suggested a sharp erosion of Goldman’s base among Democratic primary voters in the district, prompting pundits and markets to revisit their assumptions. By June, prediction markets began pricing in not just a Goldman loss but the magnitude of that loss.

As the calendar narrowed, some markets moved to quantify how large a defeat might be, focusing on whether Lander could win by extremely large margins. That kind of market-driven narrative reinforces media attention and can depress an incumbent’s perceived viability on the final day before voting. It also underlines how expectation-setting can become a self-fulfilling prophecy in tight local races when donors and activists shift support to the apparent frontrunner.

CNN’s chief data analyst offered a blunt assessment that captured the scale of Goldman’s problem and the centrality of Israel to the race. The analyst’s remarks emphasize how single-issue salience can tilt a primary in a district where the electorate prioritizes that subject above other concerns. Those televised takeaways helped crystallize the conventional wisdom heading into the polls.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes, I don’t think that Israel has played a bigger role in any district, any more than in this particular district. We are talking about New York’s 10th District. I mean, chance to be the New York Ten Dem nominee, Dan Goldman, the incumbent, a hero of the Trump first impeachment trial among Democrats, only has a one, two, three percent chance of actually holding on to his Democratic designation to be the Dem nominee in this particular race. 

https://x.com/KalshiPolitics/status/2069126979106828532

Brad Lander, who was last seen running for mayor in New York City, 98 percent chance. The reason why Dan Goldman is in trouble is because of the issue of Israel. He is seen by many in that district as being too pro-Israel. Lander has the endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, who, you know, obviously, when it comes to the issue of Israel, has been much more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israeli.

[CNN ANCHOR JOHN] BERMAN: Of course, this is what the Kalshi prediction markets are saying about this race tomorrow, but you can look at any of the polls that have been out there.

ENTEN: Any — this matches up with the internal polling 100 percent.

With momentum favoring Lander, the question shifted from whether Goldman could lose to how large the loss might be, and how that result would be read nationally. For Republicans watching, these Democratic infighting dynamics are a reminder that party fractures and single-issue primary volatility open strategic opportunities. The way local Democrats resolve these fights will matter for general election positioning and for how national narratives about the party’s priorities are shaped.

In short, Tuesday’s primary looked like the culmination of a month of rapid political recomputation, with progressive endorsements, issue salience, and prediction markets combining to make an incumbent’s path to renomination perilous. The outcome will reflect not only candidate strengths but how a plugged-in Democratic base responds under pressure on a polarizing foreign policy question.