Checklist: Report the primary results, explain why a runoff is happening, show vote totals and polls, note the May 26 date for the runoff, include the original UT poll quote, and preserve the embed token.
Decision Desk HQ projects a Republican runoff in the Texas Senate primary after no candidate cleared the 50-percent-plus-one-vote threshold required to clinch the nomination outright. With about 65 percent of votes counted, the figures left the party without a clear winner and set the stage for another head-to-head contest. This outcome matters because it injects uncertainty into a race that was expected to shape Senate control and broader congressional dynamics this fall.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn trailed slightly but remained the frontrunner with 43.2 percent of the counted vote, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton stood at 40.3 percent and Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) lingered in third with 12.9 percent. Those margins keep both Cornyn and Paxton within striking distance and guarantee a runoff under Texas election law. Cornyn has held the Senate seat since 2002, and his standing in this primary reflects a tougher-than-expected intraparty challenge.
Cornyn and Paxton will now face off again on May 26.
Throughout the race, polls consistently showed a tight contest between Cornyn and Paxton, with Hunt never rising beyond a distant third in most public surveys. A recent University of Texas poll echoed that pattern and suggested neither front-runner was close to the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a second round. That poll’s findings — reproduced below — underscore why the runoff became inevitable.
On the Republican side, the UT poll found Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn running neck-and-neck, with neither candidate close to the 50%-plus-one-vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Paxton led with 36% to Cornyn’s 34%. Houston U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was in third, garnering 26% of the vote.
Paxton ran aggressive messaging early, releasing attack ads that criticized Cornyn for what Paxton framed as cozy ties with Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who was herself running in the Democratic Senate primary. That kind of intra-party jostling shifted the tone of the primary and energized different conservative factions across the state. Conservatives looking for a fighter on the border, the courts, and regulatory issues found Paxton’s approach appealing, while establishment voters remained inclined toward Cornyn’s long record.
Prediction markets had been bullish on Paxton going into primary day, with trading suggesting a strong probability he could beat Cornyn and others for the nomination. Betting prices moved during the day to imply Paxton had roughly an 80 percent chance of defeating his Republican rivals and flashed nearly a 30 percent shot at surpassing the 50 percent mark outright. Those market signals reflect both confidence from some corners of the conservative base and continued volatility in fast-moving statewide contests.
The runoff now forces both campaigns to regroup and sharpen their appeals to primary voters across Texas. Cornyn will lean on incumbency, relationships in Washington, and framing himself as the best general election candidate against the Democratic field. Paxton will double down on messaging about accountability, conservative priorities, and his record as attorney general to consolidate support among more activist GOP voters.
For Republicans watching the map, this is a reminder that no seat can be taken for granted, even one held by an established senator. The May 26 matchup gives both men time to reset strategies, raise funds, and target turnout among core primary voters. That head-to-head will determine who carries the GOP banner into a general election where margin and messaging will both matter greatly.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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