This live update covers primary returns in North Carolina, where the Senate contests lack drama while several House races shaped by redistricting are worth watching, particularly NC-01 and NC-04, and where polling, fundraising, and outside spending are driving competitive primaries ahead of the general election.
The 2026 U.S. Senate primaries in North Carolina have been low-key compared with other states. The leading Republican and Democratic names face little credible primary opposition, leaving the general election as the real contest. Without a flashy outsider or national firebrand on either side, attention has shifted to competitive House matchups and the impacts of redistricting.
On the Republican side, Michael Whatley is widely expected to take the nomination without much trouble. The Democratic field points toward former governor Roy Cooper as the likely nominee. That sets up a conventional statewide fight rather than a headline-grabbing free-for-all.
Even if the Senate races are predictable, North Carolina’s House map is where the action is. Redistricting rearranged several districts in ways that turned formerly safe seats into real battlegrounds. That shift means candidates are recalibrating their strategies and outside groups are pouring money into targeted races.
NC-01 is a prime example of how redistricting changed the terrain. Incumbent Democrat Don Davis now represents a district that President Trump carried by nearly 12 points after lines were redrawn, compared with a much tighter margin before. That flip dramatically alters the calculus for both parties and makes this seat a top pickup opportunity Republicans will watch closely.
Former Army Col. Laurie Buckhout narrowly lost to Davis in 2024 and has emerged as a leading Republican contender in the crowded primary field. She has poured significant personal funds into her campaign, giving her a fundraising advantage over rivals like Asa Buck and state Sen. Bobby Hanig. Outside groups have also spent heavily in support of Buckhout, signaling national interest in this contest.
Retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost to Davis by about 2 points in 2024, is one of the five Republicans seeking the GOP nomination here. Her main primary opponents look to be Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and state Sen. Bobby Hanig.
Buckhout certainly has a financial edge. She loaned her campaign $2 million, most of the nearly $2.2 million she had raised as of Feb. 11, dwarfing the $345,000 and $315,000 raised by Hanig and Buck, respectively. Buckhout has also benefited from close to $1 million in outside spending support. This includes more than $500,000 from American Mission, a super PAC associated with AI, which has run ads touting Buckhout as “the Trump conservative North Carolina needs.”
Still, the only public poll of this race suggests Buckhout does not have the nomination locked up. An early February survey from Emerson College/WNCT/CBS17 found Buckhout leading Buck just 26%-22%, with Hanig back at 11%. North Carolina election rules only require a candidate to win more than 30% to avoid a runoff, so a second round of voting is unlikely here.
The funding picture in NC-01 shows how seriously outside groups are treating North Carolina. Large infusions of cash can change ad dynamics and force opponents to respond quickly. Even with a financial edge, a crowded primary and modest polling leads mean nothing is guaranteed until votes are counted.
NC-04 remains one of the state’s most reliably liberal districts, centered around Chapel Hill, Durham County, and parts of Wake County. A Republican pickup here is unrealistic, but the Democratic primary has the potential to reshape the party’s direction locally, depending on which progressive or establishment candidate prevails.
Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a spirited challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who is running on a fresh, progressive message and a generational contrast. The primary has taken on national overtones, with outside super PACs backing both sides and large sums being spent to shape the outcome.
Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a stern challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who lost to Foushee in the 2022 primary for a previous version of this district. With the Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over support for Israel, Allam has targeted Foushee’s past backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a major bogeyman in progressive circles. Allam, who is 32 years old, is also making a generational case in her progressive challenge against the 69-year old Foushee that could resonate amid the Democrats’ post-2024 debates over candidate age.
Foushee and Allam have raised similar amounts — a bit less than $600,000 — but have both benefited from ample outside spending. As of March 1, groups had spent $2.4 million supporting Foushee and $2.1 million backing Allam or opposing the incumbent. Jobs and Democracy, a super PAC backed by AI company Anthropic that promotes an appropriately regulated AI, has spent $1.6 million supporting Foushee. Allam’s biggest proponent ($1.1 million spent) has been American Priorities, a super PAC that aims to counter the influence of pro-Israel groups in Democratic primaries. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race, but all signs point to a highly competitive race.
That kind of spending on a primary in a safe Democratic seat shows how internal party fights can become proxy battles over national policy and influence. Voters in NC-04 will decide whether the district sticks with an experienced incumbent or moves toward a younger, more progressive representative.
Polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 PM Eastern, and returns will determine whether these expectations hold. Watch how turnout and late shifts affect tight races, because redistricting and outside money have made a few House contests far less predictable than the headline Senate matchups.
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