California’s jungle primary reaches the finish line with Xavier Becerra leading, but Republican Steve Hilton remains a credible threat to snag second place and force a November contest that many on the left feared would vanish into a one-party sweep.
The final pre-election polling picture shows a clustered race. Becerra sits in the mid-to-high 20s while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton battle in the low 20s, making the fight for that critical second slot essentially a coin flip in a state where voter turnout and ballot return rates can decide everything.
What changed this cycle is plain: Democrats consolidated their field late, clearing lanes for Becerra to rise from single digits to a commanding position. Party maneuvering and withdrawals among lower-tier contenders handed him a surge more by subtraction than by a broad, organic coalition-building effort.
That consolidation was accelerated when a higher-profile candidacy collapsed under scandal and resignation, sending remaining Democratic voters toward a familiar establishment figure. The net effect: Becerra gained momentum while the rest of the liberal field shuffled toward him, tightening the map for a runoff scenario.
Polls also show unusually high loyalty among Becerra backers, with a very large share saying they will “definitely” vote for him. That kind of commitment matters in a crowded contest, especially when rival Democratic hopefuls are competing for the same pool of progressive and moderate voters.
“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit.”
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco sits on a slice of the electorate that could swing the second-place outcome. Bianco’s base is roughly double digits, and if even a fraction of those votes flow to Hilton, the math tips sharply toward a Republican making the runoff against Becerra.
Hilton’s campaign benefits from an energized Republican base that’s been voting early and in larger proportions than Democrats in some regions. Early ballot returns showed a strong tilt toward Hilton in key battleground areas, signaling that the GOP ground game and enthusiasm may not be as dormant in California as national narratives suggest.
Geography matters here. Hilton leads in conservative-leaning regions like Orange County, the Central Valley, and parts of the North Coast and Sierra, while Becerra piles up votes in Los Angeles and Steyer competes in the Bay Area. Bianco dominates locally in the Inland Empire, so regional loyalties and local name recognition are decisive factors.
Older and suburban voters, who remain crucial in statewide contests, have been more likely to return ballots early and favor Republican choices in some precincts. That structural advantage in ballot returns can amplify a relatively small shift in voter sentiment and transform it into a lasting result when ballots are counted.
Democratic leaders spent much of the year firefighting an overcrowded nomination field and the real possibility of an all-GOP runoff, which would have been a political disaster for the party. Their solution was to shrink the field, and that tactic has mostly worked to concentrate votes around a single figure heading into Election Day.
On the Republican side, unity has been a quiet strength. Rather than splintering across multiple challengers, conservative voters have largely coalesced behind a few candidates, improving the odds that one of them can capitalize on any erosion of Democratic vote shares.
If Hilton finishes second, California could see a rare general election where a Republican actually has an electoral path in a statewide race. That scenario would force a different kind of campaign dynamic in November and reshape the narrative in a state long dominated by a single party.
Voters will make their choice on June 2, and the real story to watch is not just who leads now but who can sustain turnout and convert committed supporters into returned ballots. In a tight jungle primary, the second-place finish matters more than ever, and small shifts in voter behavior can have outsized consequences.
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