Poll Finds Democrats Leaderless, Majority Fear Political Violence

New national surveys show Democrats struggling for clear leadership while a troubling share of Americans say political violence can be justified; these findings demand attention as we head into future election cycles.

The week after a disappointing election outcome is not a time for surrender, it is a time for regrouping and action. We lost some ground in blue states, but setbacks can teach us where to focus and how to win next time. A couple of recent polls give both reason for cautious optimism and serious alarm.

One survey asked 2024 voters who they regard as the leader of the Democratic Party and produced an embarrassing result for Democrats: the most common answers were “I don’t know,” followed by Kamala Harris, with “Nobody” also near the top. That lack of obvious leadership is a strategic problem for any party that wants to govern with confidence. Unclear leadership makes coordinated messaging and accountability much harder heading into midterms and beyond.

Another survey tackled a darker subject: expectations about political violence in the United States. The poll found a majority of Americans expect political violence to increase, reflecting how a year of violent incidents has rattled people across the political spectrum. That anxiety shows up among both older and younger voters, and among members of both parties, though Democrats and older Americans register higher concern.

A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.

It’s a view held by majorities of Americans all across lines like gender, age, party affiliation and level of education, though Democrats and older voters expressed particular concern.

I don’t find that surprising. The atmosphere around our politics has been punctuated by real threats and real attacks, and many Americans now say they expect more trouble ahead. The survey asked respondents whether they expect politically motivated violence to increase or decrease, and the overall results were 55 percent expect an increase while 29 percent expect a decrease. Those numbers place pressure on law enforcement, intelligence, and political leaders to confront this risk honestly.

When you break the numbers down by 2024 voters, the gap narrows but the worry remains. Among Trump voters, 50 percent expect an increase, 34 percent a decrease. Among Harris voters, 61 percent expect an increase while 25 percent expect a decrease. That broad expectation of rising violence suggests national political conditions are being viewed as unstable by many on both sides of the aisle.

Even more alarming is a separate finding about public acceptance of violence as a political tool. While most respondents still say violence is never justified, a substantial minority believes there are circumstances that could make it acceptable. That view has real consequences for public safety and civic stability if it continues to grow.

The POLITICO Poll, conducted after Kirk’s assassination, suggests Americans are rattled by the environment of heightened political violence — and that most still reject it: about two thirds, 64 percent, say political violence is never justified.

Still, a small but significant portion of the population, 24 percent, say that there are some instances where violence is justified.

“What’s happening is public support for political violence is growing in the mainstream, it’s not a fringe thing, and the more it grows, the more it seems acceptable to volatile people,” (University of Chicago political science professor Robert) Pape said.

That 24 percent figure is not an abstract statistic, it represents millions of adults who say political violence could be justified in some situations. Using recent population estimates for the core adult age range most likely to be involved in such acts, that percentage would translate into tens of millions of people. Even a tiny fraction of that number acting on the belief could produce a catastrophic security problem.

These are people who might rationalize riots, looting, arson, or worse in service of political aims. We already saw mass unrest in recent years, and the nation is still recovering from episodes of violence and high-profile assassination attempts. The political climate and rhetoric we tolerate have consequences in the streets, in communities, and for families who fear for their safety.

As Republicans, we should call out leadership vacuums where we find them and push for policies that protect citizens and uphold law and order. We also need to compete for hearts and minds by offering a clear, positive vision that reduces the appeal of violence. The next election cycles will test whether America can get back to stable civic norms or whether polarization leads to further breakdown and danger.

I think I know that guy.