The Saint Anselm College poll released in November 2025 paints a clear picture for Republicans in New Hampshire: Vice President JD Vance is the runaway leader in a hypothetical 2028 GOP primary, with a commanding 57 percent of support and a wide gap between him and every other named contender. The survey sampled over 2,100 registered New Hampshire voters and reports an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.1 percent, giving real weight to these early dynamics. While national chatter still fixates on Donald Trump and intra-party rivalries, the New Hampshire numbers suggest Republican voters in the first-in-the-nation state are coalescing around a new favorite. This piece breaks down the key findings, candidate standings, and what Republican strategists might take from the results.
The poll asked New Hampshire voters, “Looking ahead to the next Presidential election in 2028, if the New Hampshire Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?” The list included familiar names like Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Marco Rubio, Glenn Youngkin, and JD Vance, as well as options for other and unsure. According to the results, JD Vance leads with 57 percent, while Marco Rubio comes in a distant second at 9 percent. No other named Republican breaks into double digits, with most single-digit showings and a few candidates barely registering among respondents.
Those figures matter because New Hampshire still sets the tone for the GOP nominating contest, and a dominant showing here gives a candidate momentum, media attention, and donor interest. For Republicans who want a fresh face that departs from the Trump-era dynamic, Vance’s lead will be seen as proof that the party can rally behind a different style of conservative. Conversely, Trump-aligned voters and his defenders may view these numbers as a snapshot of a particular state moment rather than a definitive national verdict, which fuels natural debate within the base.
The survey methodology is straightforward: online polling of 2,112 registered New Hampshire voters collected between November 18 and 19, 2025, drawn from a randomized sample that reflects the state’s demographic and partisan composition. The reported margin of sampling error of +/- 2.1 percent suggests the lead is not a fluke, especially with such a large gap between the leader and the nearest rival. That said, early-state polling can shift quickly as candidates declare, campaign, and answer scrutiny, so these numbers are an early but meaningful data point.
Inside the headline numbers, the breakdown is striking. Ted Cruz registers at just 1 percent, Ron DeSantis at 4 percent, and familiar conservative names like Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley land below the high single digits. Even popular governors and senators are struggling to gain traction in New Hampshire, which underscores how much Vance has captured the state’s Republican electorate. For GOP strategists focused on 2026 and 2028, this suggests a strong early preference among Granite State conservatives for Vance’s brand of messaging and leadership.
On the Democratic side, the poll shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holding a narrow lead with 28 percent versus California Governor Gavin Newsom at 24 percent, indicating a competitive field that mirrors the Republicans in its own way. While Democrats sort out their options, the GOP picture in New Hampshire seems less fragmented if these results hold elsewhere. Republicans who worry about the party’s direction will be watching whether Vance’s rise is a unifying force or a signal of an intra-party realignment away from past leading lights.
The poll also included commentary echoing a common Republican playbook: prioritize holding power in nearer-term races before chasing the White House. As one Republican insider put it, “If you’re a Republican that wants to run in 2028 right now, you need to focus on keeping Republicans in power for 2026. I think the number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves.” The insider added, “Voters will sniff out anybody who has seemed to be sort of focused on themselves.” Those lines read like practical advice for candidates who want to win both in the short term and build credibility for a national run.
For Republican voters and operatives, the message from New Hampshire is clear: Vance has momentum, but success in 2028 will depend on translating that early state strength into a broader coalition across diverse Republican constituencies. The gap between Vance and the rest is large today, which gives his backers reasons for optimism and other camps cause to reassess strategy. As the primary calendar unfolds and more candidates make decisions, these New Hampshire numbers will be part of ongoing conversations about who can lead the GOP into the next presidential cycle.
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