JD Vance topped the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll this year, but the gap with Marco Rubio is far narrower than it was a year ago, signaling a shift in conservative energy and influence as Republicans begin to eye the 2028 landscape. More than 1,600 attendees voted, and the results reflect where core MAGA-aligned activists and activists-plus are leaning right now. The straw poll is a snapshot, not a forecast, yet it matters because it shows who’s winning hearts and attention inside the movement. This article lays out the numbers, the trends compared with last year, and what the candidates are saying about one another.
JD Vance captured 53 percent of the CPAC straw poll vote from attendees, a strong showing that keeps him atop the conservative field in this environment. Over 1,600 people participated in the poll, which gives a meaningful read of grassroots preferences inside the conservative movement. Straw polls like this have historically favored populist, MAGA-friendly figures, so Vance’s win will be read as validation by activists. Still, context matters: the poll reflects activists at a single gathering rather than the broader primary electorate.
Marco Rubio closed fast, earning 35 percent of the vote after being a distant afterthought in the 2025 poll where he registered only three percent. Rubio’s rise is notable because it suggests establishment-leaning conservatives and influencers who respect institutional experience are re-engaging. His increased visibility within the party and administration roles have boosted his standing among CPAC attendees. The tighter margin between Vance and Rubio makes the conservative field look more competitive than last year.
Straw polls aren’t crystal balls, but they reveal where energy and enthusiasm are concentrated among activists and committed conservatives. Past CPAC results show winners who both went on to greater national influence and others who did not, so the correlation to eventual nominees is mixed. Donald Trump dominated CPAC straw polls from 2019 through 2024, though earlier cycles saw winners like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. That uneven track record means we should treat this as an important signal rather than a prediction.
The contrast with last year is stark: Vance led last year with 61 percent in the same CPAC environment, and Steve Bannon and Ron DeSantis trailed far behind in those results. That 2025 baseline made Vance look dominant, but this year Rubio closed much of that gap. Momentum can shift quickly in intra-party politics, and the CPAC crowd is responsive to who’s perceived as effective, disciplined, and able to carry the movement forward. The new figures show Rubio is not only back in the conversation but competitive with the populist option.
But the poll offers a snapshot of where the energy lies among core supporters of President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement.
At last year’s CPAC meeting in Oxon Hill, Maryland, Vance led the straw poll with 61% of the vote, followed by Steve Bannon, a conservative podcaster and Trump adviser during his first term, at 12%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 7%.
In this year’s poll, no one beyond Vance and Rubio cleared two percent, underscoring how the field has consolidated among a couple of proven names. That concentration suggests activists are coalescing around candidates perceived as serious standard-bearers for the movement’s priorities. It also implies that second-tier hopefuls face a steep climb to gain traction inside the core conservative base. Early consolidation can matter later, especially if it helps shape donor and media attention.
Both men have publicly framed each other as teammates rather than adversaries, softening potential intra-party friction and presenting a united front against the broader left. Rubio has been explicit in his support for Vance if Vance runs: “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.” That line signals a willingness to prioritize party unity and movement continuity over personal ambition. For many conservatives, that kind of solidarity is reassuring as the party navigates the post-Trump era.
It remains very early in the 2028 cycle and President Donald Trump remains the dominant force in the MAGA movement, but the CPAC results give a window into who activists believe can carry the mantle. Vance’s lead shows the staying power of populist, America-first messaging, while Rubio’s surge indicates the appeal of experienced conservative statesmen who can argue articulately on policy. Watch for how both men use these results to build coalitions, shore up donors, and expand their national profiles as the primary season approaches.
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