I’ll show how a major outlet corrected its usual tilt, confirm the core claim from the State of the Union, keep the original quoted lines intact, note where the press still falls short, and point to why this matters for crime policy and accountability.
The mainstream media has spent years reflexively fact-checking Republican presidents, often with a heavy dose of skepticism. So when a legacy outlet rated President Trump’s claim about a drop in the murder rate as true, it felt like watching an item bounce off the front page and land somewhere different.
CBS News, under its new leadership that has pushed for tougher standards, reviewed the president’s line that “Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history — the lowest number in over 125 years.” That sentence was evaluated and the outlet concluded it was true. Seeing them admit that outright is notable, because routine admission of accuracy has not been the media default.
This fact-check matters because the conversation around crime statistics has been clouded by selective reporting and partisan spin. When numbers move in a favorable direction, some outlets minimize or reject them; when they point the other way, those same outlets amplify the alarm. A straight rating from a major newsroom removes one layer of partisan noise and forces a more honest public conversation.
Independent researchers and preliminary studies pointed to a sharp decline in homicides last year, with some estimates suggesting a 125-year low in the homicide rate. The Council on Criminal Justice and other analysts highlighted that a drop toward roughly four homicides per 100,000 residents is plausible, based on initial tallies and city-level data. Those findings don’t settle every debate, but they do change the baseline for policy discussion.
Exact causes for the decline remain debated, and reputable researchers caution against simple explanations. Changes in policing tactics, targeted criminal justice reforms, technology, and broader social and economic shifts are all on the table as plausible contributors. That nuance doesn’t make the decline any less real; it just means policymakers and voters should be careful about overclaiming causation.
The media’s reaction has not been uniform. Some anchors and outlets continue to fact-check selectively, choosing moments to intervene live in ways that influence viewers. That kind of on-air judgment calls can look like activism rather than journalism, and they undermine trust when they contradict careful, data-driven reporting that emerges later.
Still, credit where it’s due: a plain statement that a claim is true forces outlets to reconcile past coverage and adjust their tone. If more newsrooms follow that example, the public will get clearer information and fewer editorialized spin cycles. That benefits voters, because policy debates about crime, immigration, and enforcement deserve solid facts, not partisan dodgeball.
And let’s be clear about what this does and does not mean politically. A validation of a statistical claim does not absolve a president of criticism on unrelated matters, nor does it erase disagreements over policy means. What it should do is recalibrate skepticism: when evidence points one way, commentators should acknowledge it, then pivot to arguing policy on the merits.
The core quote from the fact-check is worth repeating exactly: “This is the biggest decline, think of it in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years.” That line stands as the hinge for the wider debate about crime and leadership. When a claim like that is backed by independent data, the conversation shifts from whether to accept the success to how it was achieved and how to sustain it.
For Republicans and conservatives, the takeaway is straightforward: policy wins and measurable improvements deserve recognition, even from skeptical outlets. A culture that rewards truth over tribal talking points strengthens accountability and gives policymakers credit where it’s due. It also raises the bar for opponents who want to deny or minimize positive trends for political reasons.
Journalism should be about checking power, not reflexively siding with one party’s narrative about the other. When a major outlet steps back from predictable skepticism and acknowledges a clear statistical development, that’s progress for public discourse. The next step is for the rest of the media ecosystem to match that standard and for policymakers to focus on sustaining real results.
“This is the biggest decline, think of it in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years.” A CBS News fact check has determined that is true.
True: Trump claims murder rate saw its largest decline in recorded history last year
“Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history — the lowest number in over 125 years.”
Details:
Preliminary data from independent researchers suggests that homicides may have hit a 125-year low last year, although the FBI’s official annual crime report for 2025 will not be released until later this year.
A January study by the Council on Criminal Justice, or CCJ, found a “strong possibility” that the 2025 homicide rate will drop to about 4 per 100,000 residents, which would be the lowest recorded in law enforcement or public health data dating back to 1900. The homicide rate has been declining since 2022, according to annual FBI reports.
The CCJ report also noted that the reasons for last year’s decline are not clear, but researchers say possible influences include “changes in criminal justice policies and programs, shifts in the use of technology, and broader social, economic, and cultural trends.”
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