Brett Velicovich, a former U.S. Army intelligence and special operations soldier, says Iran’s tactic of small, persistent attacks is no longer working because the United States and regional partners are finally enforcing red lines and responding decisively.

Former Special Ops Soldier: Iran’s Strategy Is Backfiring

Brett Velicovich comes with hard-earned credibility from multiple tours in Afghanistan and Iraq and a background in counter-terrorism and drone operations. He’s been watching the region for years and says Tehran’s long game of wearing opponents down is collapsing under a firmer U.S. posture. That shift matters because a restrained response of the past allowed the regime to keep testing limits without serious cost.

On national television he laid out a blunt assessment of how Iran has operated and how the situation has changed. “Iran’s strategy has always been this death by a thousand cuts. Launch a few drones here, arm a proxy militia there, threaten shipping lanes somewhere else,” Brett Velicovich said Thursday on “The Faulkner Focus.”

He emphasized the strategic dynamics that made that approach successful for decades. “But that strategy only works if the United States hesitates,” he added, arguing that the United States has responded reservedly in the past. Now, he says, hesitation is over and leadership is enforcing consequences.

“But we are done abandoning our red lines, and it’s clear our leadership is no longer going to play nuclear roulette with this regime. … We’re watching the entire chessboard,” he said. “We’re prepared to respond wherever American interests are threatened.”

Velicovich’s language is forceful because the facts on the ground are stark: Tehran has attacked or threatened multiple countries across the region, testing not just the U.S. but neighbors who long tolerated Iranian meddling. Those actions, meant to coerce and divide, are now producing the opposite effect. Instead of isolation and fear, Iran’s aggression has drawn a broader coalition of states into a defensive posture.

U.S. precision strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure represent a tactical answer and a strategic message: the cost-benefit calculation in Tehran has shifted. Where limited strikes once produced little consequence, today strikes are paired with diplomatic clarity and support from allies refusing to be bullied. That change erodes the utility of the “death by a thousand cuts” playbook.

Velicovich called out the regime’s character bluntly while explaining why its approach is failing. “This is not a country defending itself anymore,” Velicovich said. “It’s a regime exporting chaos in every direction. It’s a regime full of psychopaths that should not exist in modern society.” Such language underscores a Republican view that the regime’s ideology and behavior are existential problems, not mere policy disputes.

The practical outcome of Tehran’s reckless outreach is the unlikely unity of several regional actors who once fought proxy battles and now share a common interest in stability. When nations that previously tolerated Iranian influence start coordinating or at least aligning responses, the strategic environment changes fast. That alignment could make it far harder for Tehran to find safe havens for its proxies and weapons.

Domestically, the moment highlights a contrast between talk and action. For decades, adversaries learned to read American intent as a bluff, and they pushed accordingly. Today’s posture aims to restore deterrence by demonstrating that threats to American interests and partners will carry consequences. That deterrence-first stance is exactly what a conservative security strategy demands.

There’s also a human element worth noting: the Iranian people have long chafed under theocracy and misrule, and the current crackdowns and external adventurism have deepened domestic grievances. If regional pressure increases and internal opposition gains space, the long-term political trajectory inside Iran could shift. Conservatives point to that possibility as both a moral and strategic opportunity.

For now, the main strategic fact is simple: the old pattern of incremental harassment worked when Tehran believed the West would look away. It no longer does. With coordinated pressure, clearer red lines, and decisive action, the tools Tehran relied on are losing their bite. The administration’s resolve is being tested, and so far it’s sending a clear message that continued aggression will be met with proportionate force.