Republican Matt Van Epps Wins TN-07 Special Election

The Tennessee 7th District special election was called for Republican Matt Van Epps, who led with 53.3 percent to Democrat Aftyn Behn’s 45.6 percent with 71 percent of returns, meaning Van Epps will finish out the late Rep. Mark Green’s term.

Decision Desk HQ called the race after counting showed a clear edge for Van Epps in a district that had been expected to remain comfortably Republican. The result ends the last special congressional contest of 2025 and hands the seat back to a GOP member after Green left for the private sector earlier in the year.

Van Epps is a retired U.S. Marine and former Tennessee Department of General Services commissioner, and he ran a campaign stressing turnout and steady conservative governance. He told reporters, “We were up in early voting, and we’re just going to keep pressing forward to win today.” That message, focused on the economy and practical results, clearly resonated in a district that has historically leaned right.

Behn stormed into the race as a state representative who attracted national attention for progressive positions and blunt rhetoric about parts of her district. She stated, “For me, we’ve already won over the hearts and minds of so many Tennesseans and across the country,” and added, “What starts here changes this country.” She also said, “I think the electorate is shifting to accept a candidate like me that has a progressive track record.”

The margin surprised some observers because TN-07 had voted for Donald Trump by 22 points the previous year, and a late Emerson poll placed Van Epps only about ten points ahead of Behn. The tight polling reflected a volatile political moment and underscored that even red districts can see energized Democratic turnout when the party focuses resources and high-profile surrogates.

Economic concerns dominated voters’ priorities in the district, according to survey data released during the contest, with housing affordability, healthcare, and other pocketbook issues following closely. Local leaders and campaign strategists on both sides emphasized job creation and cost-of-living relief in the final days as the best route to win undecided voters.

The Emerson numbers also broke down issue salience in detail, highlighting why Republicans should pay attention to economic messaging moving forward. The data showed specific percentages for each concern, and that focus on livelihoods helped drive the messaging battle in a competitive special election context.

Below is the poll summary as released by Emerson, presented here without alteration:

As for the issues motiving TN-07 voters, the economy is at the top with 38 percent, followed by housing affordability at 15 percent, healthcare at 13 percent, threats to democracy also at 13 percent, immigration at 6 percent, and crime and education each at 5 percent. Republicans would do well to take notice of how much the economy is driving recent elections.

National figures turned out to help. President Trump joined a tele-rally to boost Van Epps, saying, “Let’s make it a sweeping victory. The whole world is watching Tennessee right now. And they’re watching your district. The whole world. It’s a big vote. It’s going to show something. It’s got to show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been.” That kind of direct intervention aimed to lock down conservative voters and push undecideds toward a stability argument.

Behn’s team countered with a last-night tele-rally featuring high-profile progressive supporters and a strong grassroots push in targeted precincts. Supporters argued that a close result proved progressive ideas can make inroads in places previously considered out of reach, and they stressed national themes about economic fairness and systemic reform.

The race grew tense because of some earlier controversies that tested Behn’s appeal in parts of the district, including critical comments about Nashville that surfaced during the campaign. Those remarks became fodder for local debate, and they likely colored discussions in suburban and rural pockets where cultural identity matters to voters.

With Van Epps now the declared winner, he will assume the remainder of the term and join a delegation that has been focused on conservative priorities through 2025. Republican operatives view the result as confirmation that clear economic messaging and turnout efforts remain effective in solidly conservative districts when applied aggressively.