The poll out of Sweden shows Muslim voters overwhelmingly favor left-wing parties, a pattern that mirrors growing Democratic alignment among Muslims in the United States; this piece walks through the Swedish data, U.S. parallels, and what Republicans should notice and respond to in the coming elections.
Recent election cycles have revealed a durable political alignment between many Muslim voters and the Left, and Sweden provides a stark example. That country’s polling shows Social Democrats and other left parties drawing the vast majority of Muslim support, a phenomenon that deserves attention for its policy and electoral implications. It’s not merely an abstract trend; voting patterns shape which parties set the agenda on immigration, integration, and public safety. For Republicans, understanding these dynamics is essential to making an effective case to voters across communities.
In Sweden, previously unpublished polling finds Muslim voters concentrated on the political left in substantial numbers. The data indicate that the Social Democrats and the Left Party dominate Muslim voter preferences, with smaller shares going to green or centrist options. Even the more conservative Sweden Democrats attract only a modest slice by comparison. These figures suggest cultural and political ties that favor left-leaning platforms on welfare, anti-discrimination, and multicultural policy.
Muslim voters in Sweden remain heavily concentrated on the political left, although the Sweden Democrats attract considerably more support among Muslim voters than the other parties in the governing coalition, according to polling and election research.
Previously unpublished figures from Novus, seen by Fokus magazine, show that 61.6% of respondents who identified as Muslim supported the Social Democrats, while 18.7% backed the Left Party. The Green Party received 4.9%, meaning the three left-wing parties together accounted for 85% of Muslim respondents’ preferences.
By contrast, the governing Moderates received just 2.1%, while the Christian Democrats and Liberals received 1.5% and 0.2%, respectively. The three parties together attracted 3.8%.
Context matters: what counts as right or left in Sweden does not map neatly onto American political labels. Sweden’s center-right is still more economically and socially interventionist than many U.S. conservatives, so comparisons need nuance. Still, the sheer concentration of Muslim support on left-wing parties in Sweden is significant. It raises questions about cultural alignment, policy priorities, and the appeal of progressive platforms on welfare and anti-discrimination.
The Sweden Democrats stand out on the right, with 10.4% support among Muslim respondents—more than twice the combined support for the other three government parties.
The figures broadly reflect a longstanding pattern. A 2021 study by the University of Gothenburg found that 58.7% of self-identified Muslims supported the Social Democrats and 8.3% the Left Party. Among voters born outside Europe, the 2022 election produced a similar pattern, with 43% voting Social Democrat and 19% for the Left Party.
Across the Atlantic, U.S. data show parallels though not identical results. Muslim voter registration and turnout have increased, and Democrats benefit from that trend. Surveys indicate registration among eligible Muslim voters rose markedly over recent cycles, and in 2024 many Muslim voters supported the Democratic ticket. Those trends feed into broader debates about outreach, assimilation, and how political messages resonate across immigrant communities.
Muslim Voter Registration Rises Steadily since 2016
Eighty-five percent of Muslims who are legally eligible to vote in the U.S. report being registered to vote, which is less likely than 92% of Jews but on par with all other groups. Looking over time, we see a steady rise in Muslim voter registration from 60% in 2016. Despite Muslim voter registration being on par with most other groups in 2025, there is still room for growth. We find that among Muslims who are legally eligible to vote, women and non-white Muslims are least likely to be registered. These are demographics voter registration campaigns can make specific outreach to.
Half of Muslim Voters Cast a Ballot for Kamala Harris in 2024, Less than One Third for Trump, More than One in Ten for Stein
Four in five Muslims registered to vote cast a ballot in the 2024 presidential election. Among Muslim voters, 50% voted for Harris, 31% for Trump, and 12% for Jill Stein. Among the general public, 50% of registered voters selected Harris, 45% selected Trump, and 0% selected Stein. Notably, among Muslim voters, men were far more likely than women to vote for Trump (42% of Muslim men vs. 17% of Muslim women). We did not find gender differences in any other group. Factors that predict voting for Trump among Muslim voters include Republican party affiliation, an income of $75,000 or more (compared to less than $30,000), being born in the U.S. (compared to being born outside of the U.S.), identifying as white (vs. any other race/ethnicity), and endorsing any anti-Muslim tropes (compared to not endorsing tropes).
There are instructive patterns inside the U.S. numbers: higher-income, U.S.-born, and white-identifying Muslims were likelier to favor Trump, which suggests assimilation and economic integration shift political preferences. Gender differences were also notable, with Muslim men more likely to back Trump than Muslim women. Those nuances matter for messaging: policy and cultural appeals that emphasize upward mobility, school choice, and religious liberty may find traction among certain subgroups.
For Republicans, the takeaway should be straightforward: dismissing these changing demographics would be a mistake, but so would treating them as a monolith. Political coalitions are built by addressing voters’ real concerns on jobs, safety, and education, not by assuming immutable loyalties. If Republican campaigns want to compete, they need honest, localized engagement that addresses integration, opportunity, and respect for religious practice without caricature.
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