Seattle posted the second-largest net outflow of home shoppers among the country’s 100 largest metro areas in the first quarter of 2026, trailing only New York, according to a Washington Policy Center analysis of migration data.
Mark Harmsworth, the group’s director of small business policy, built the analysis from Redfin search data, state population estimates, federal housing figures, and IRS returns. Redfin’s migration tracker measures where home shoppers are searching, not where they ultimately move, and the company describes it as a non-scientific but early indicator of relocation intent.
The migration figures pair with tax data showing a longer-running trend. Washington state recorded a net loss of nearly 19,000 taxpayers and dependents between 2021 and 2022, along with about $1.66 billion in adjusted gross income, according to IRS returns cited in the analysis. King County’s later filings show a net loss of roughly 13,000 people and close to $2 billion in AGI in a single year. Even in a year the county gained residents from other states, it still lost $446 million in income overall, because the households leaving earned more than the households arriving.
Businesses feeling the pinch
The analysis also points to business costs as a factor in the outmigration. Seattle has added a 5 percent “social housing tax” on companies with payrolls of $1 million or more, on top of an existing city payroll tax and other business taxes and fees.
Seattle’s office vacancy rate is around 33 percent, meaning roughly one in three commercial office spaces sits empty, according to the analysis.
The concern raised in the report is that King County’s overall population count could stay stable even as its tax base weakens, if the county is losing a disproportionate share of higher-income taxpayers while gaining lower-income residents. That distinction matters for local government finances, which rely on income-generating economic activity to fund public safety, transportation, housing programs and social services.
The Washington Policy Center analysis notes that the pattern isn’t unique to Seattle. The Tax Foundation has documented similar migration trends nationally, with higher-income households increasingly relocating to lower-cost, lower-tax regions.
Add comment