Iowa’s U.S. Senate contest is a statistical toss-up, according to a new Fox News poll showing Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson by two points, 49% to 47%, among likely voters — a gap well inside the margin of error.
Among registered voters, Turek’s lead widens slightly to four points, 50% to 46%, a number that has held steady since June and also falls within sampling error.
The poll, conducted September 24-28, 2026, surveyed 1,204 Iowa registered voters, including a subsample of 1,008 likely voters. The margin of error is ±2.5 points for registered voters and ±3 points for likely voters.
Party unity appears to be doing more work for Turek than for Hinson. Democrats back Turek at a 96% clip, while Republicans support Hinson at 87%. Independents favor Turek by a two-to-one margin, and 10% of Republicans say they’re backing the Democrat. Iowa’s underlying Republican lean is what keeps the race competitive despite that imbalance.
Voters are similarly split on which party should control the Senate overall — 49% want Democratic control, 48% want Republican control — numbers that track closely with the individual candidate matchup.
Who’s Winning Where
Turek leads among women by 11 points, in the suburbs by 16 points, among college graduates by 17 points, and among independents by 32 points.
Hinson leads among men by 7 points, among voters without a college degree by 6 points, among rural voters by 14 points, and among White evangelical Christians by 41 points.
Economic Anxiety Favors Turek
Financial strain is shaping the race. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans said their families were falling behind financially; that figure has climbed to 4 in 10 today, and those voters back Turek by 38 points. Voters who say they’re holding steady (45%) or getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson, by 14 and 53 points respectively.
Six in 10 Iowa voters say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote — more than say the same about President Trump (43%), immigration (39%), or AI technology (27%). Turek holds the advantage among voters who name cost of living, Trump, or AI as top concerns, while Hinson leads among voters most focused on immigration.
Trump’s Shadow Over the Race
Trump carried Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024. Today, 57% of Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance, versus 42% who approve — almost a mirror image of his win margin.
Hinson’s own favorability numbers are underwater: 42% view her favorably against 50% unfavorably, with nearly 4 in 10 saying their view is
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