China Nearly Doubles Warship and Coast Guard Patrols Around Philippine-Held Waters

Chinese military and coast guard ships nearly doubled their presence around contested reefs and shoals claimed by the Philippines last month, according to figures released by Manila’s armed forces, as confrontations between the two countries’ forces grow more frequent and more dangerous.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines tracked 101 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels across four disputed areas in September, up sharply from 56 in August and 48 in July. The largest concentration, 39 vessels, was recorded around Scarborough Shoal. Another 28 were tracked near Thitu Island, called Pag-asa by the Philippines; 23 near Second Thomas Shoal; and 11 near Sabina Shoal.

Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine military’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, said the numbers reflect what he called China’s continued “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive” conduct in the region. Asked why the figure had nearly doubled in a single month, Trinidad said the military wanted to watch the trend over a longer stretch before drawing firm conclusions about any shift in Chinese strategy.

A Dangerous Weekend Encounter

The spike in vessel traffic comes amid a string of close calls in the air and at sea. On Saturday, a Philippine C-208 maritime patrol aircraft flying near Scarborough Shoal was approached by two Chinese military aircraft, the Philippine military said. One of them, a J-16 fighter jet, repeatedly maneuvered in front of and behind the unarmed Philippine plane at what Manila described as an unsafe distance.

This incident is part of a recurring pattern of unsafe and coercive behavior against Philippine government vessels and aircraft conducting lawful operations.

The Philippine aircraft completed its mission and returned to base safely. Beijing gave a different account, saying the Philippine plane had entered airspace over what it calls Huangyan Dao without permission and that Chinese forces took “necessary measures” in response.

Days earlier, Chinese coast guard and naval vessels moved to block a Philippine resupply run to Second Thomas Shoal, where a small contingent of Philippine troops is stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a naval vessel deliberately grounded there in 1999 to assert Manila’s claim. Chinese ships have repeatedly tried to stop food, water and other supplies from reaching the troops aboard.

Why This Matters to Washington

Scarborough Shoal sits roughly 120 miles west of the Philippine island of Luzon and has been one of the most persistent flashpoints between the two countries since China effectively seized control of access to it following a 2012 standoff. Manila maintains the shoal lies within its exclusive economic zone. A 2016 international tribunal ruling found that China’s sweeping historic claims across the South China Sea have no legal basis — a ruling Beijing has never accepted.

The Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally, bound to Washington by a Mutual Defense Treaty dating to 1951. The United States has repeatedly stated that an armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels anywhere in the South China Sea would trigger American obligations under that treaty — a commitment that puts Washington squarely in the path of any escalation.

The latest incidents come even as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have stressed stability in the US-China relationship following Xi’s recent state visit to Washington, underscoring that diplomatic warmth at the top has done little to slow the standoff in the disputed waters below.