The NFL’s international slate continues this week with the Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) facing the Atlanta Falcons (3-5) in Madrid, Spain. Cincinnati enters as 3-point favorites, with the over/under set at 52.5 total points on BetMGM.
The Bengals arrive on a three-game winning streak but needed overtime last week to escape with a 43-36 win over the Titans. Quarterback Joe Burrow had a huge statistical outing, and wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 21 receptions, 296 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Cincinnati’s offense is averaging 29.4 points per game, second-best in the league, and ranks 6th in EPA per play according to NFL Savant. But the Bengals’ rushing attack has stalled, and their defense has been shaky: they gave up 36 points to Tennessee last week, including 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Titans running back Tony Pollard.
That defensive vulnerability could play directly into the hands of Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Atlanta was shut out in Week 8 against Tampa Bay in a game played in torrential rain, with Robinson managing 76 rushing yards but no touchdown — his fourth straight scoreless game. Despite the drought, most sportsbooks list Robinson’s anytime touchdown odds around -250 for this matchup.
Robinson is tied with Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III as one of only two running backs this season to record both a 40-plus-yard and a 50-plus-yard run, each having done so twice. Cincinnati’s defense, even with a retooled interior defensive line, has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and has particularly struggled against stretch runs and outside handoffs — exactly the kind of plays that favor Robinson.
Cincinnati has also been prone to slow starts this season, an issue head coach Kevin Stefanski’s Browns teams exploited in past meetings with the Bengals, giving Atlanta a potential opening to stay competitive in the early going.
One suggested same-game parlay from NY Post sports betting writer Mike Turay combines Robinson to score a touchdown (-235) with the Falcons covering a +2.5 first-half spread (-110), for combined odds of +125 on BetMGM.
Add comment