Why Trump Is Campaigning Hard in States He Already Won

President Trump is in the midst of a 32-state rally tour ahead of November’s midterms, with recent stops in deep-red territory including Denton, Texas; Oklahoma; and Mobile, Alabama. Some political analysts have questioned why a president would spend so much time campaigning in states that are already reliably Republican, suggesting it signals trouble for the GOP. But Luke Ball, a veteran strategist who worked on Trump’s 2024 reelection campaign, told Fox News Digital that reading is off base.

“So, for people who are maybe commenting and doing it from a perspective of ‘the president’s in trouble,’ I think that it’s kind of a lazy analysis for you to just take it at surface value that he’s in red states,” Ball said.

On Thursday, Trump spoke in Denton, a suburb of Dallas, before heading to Oklahoma, a state that hasn’t backed a Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. He is scheduled to rally Friday in Mobile, Alabama. Ball said Texas and Oklahoma go “hand in hand” strategically, and that appearances in both can help drive Republican turnout in swing districts tucked inside otherwise safe-red states.

Ball acknowledged the approach carries political risk, since Trump himself isn’t on the ballot this cycle, but said the tour reflects deliberate data-driven planning rather than improvisation.

“They keep saying — and it’s a risk politically for the president — but they keep saying that he is on the ballot and on the top of the ballot, but the reason they’re doing it is because the RNC the MAGA Incs, and the James Blair’s of the world have the data that show who’s going to turn out for the president and nobody else,” Ball said.

MAGA Inc., the Super PAC that spent more than $375 million backing Trump’s 2024 bid, is now funding Republican congressional candidates around the country. James Blair, who served as Trump’s 2024 campaign political director, is now White House Deputy Chief of Staff.

Ball pointed to Friday’s Mobile rally as another example of targeted strategy, noting the media market there reaches into Pensacola, Florida.

“The next stop is in Mobile, Alabama, another media market that I worked in, which is going to encompass Pensacola, Florida — which always brings out the vote for the rest of the state,” Ball said. “So if you want to solidify your standing in Florida and show that you still are the kingmaker in that state that used to be purple a few years ago, and now Democrats don’t even bother spending in it, you’ve got to make sure that you lock that down.”

“So, great optics in Alabama, great optics in Oklahoma, but in addition to that, you’re getting a red area of Texas motivated to turn out and a very, very red area of Florida to turn out for those elections,” he added.

National Coverage Is Part of the Plan

Ball said the rallies’ nationwide media coverage is itself a deliberate component of the strategy, not a side effect.

“Other traditional candidates would strategically target and fine-tune the principal’s time in various states, but people were saying Trump wasn’t going to go out on the campaign trail at all, and now it’s the total opposite,” Ball explained. “It’s, ‘why is he doing so much? Why is he hitting all of these deep red states?’ It’s also from a perspective too, when you have these major rallies in Mobile, Alabama, or Oklahoma or deep red states across the nation, that still gets major national coverage.”

In Denton, Trump toured a Peterbilt truck manufacturing plant, meeting with employees and delivering brief remarks. Ball said such stops echo tactics used during the 2024 campaign, when former co-campaign manager Susie Wiles — now Trump’s White House Chief of Staff — pushed for off-the-record visits at every stop.

“When we were on the campaign trail, I remember Susie Wiles saying that at every stop he goes to, she wants him at an off the record event, whether that’s going into the Bluebird Diner in Iowa or eating a hoagie in Buc-ee’s or whatever it might be, and I almost see a little bit of parallel here with the macro strategy behind the tour,” Ball said. “Instead of popping into a mom and pop show or store, he’s touring manufacturing or he’s going to a specific industry in one state and then holding a rally that captures the media market in another. So you’re not just showing up and leaving. You always think about what’s the additional thing you can do to draw out voters in that state.”