USC Weighs Nine-Figure Price Tag for a Lincoln Riley Firing

A 41-27 loss to Oregon last week has intensified calls from USC fans to fire head coach Lincoln Riley, but analysts say any move to replace him would carry a staggering financial cost, potentially running between $100 million and $120 million once buyouts, staff contracts and roster rebuilding are factored in.

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt, discussing the Trojans’ situation on “Big Noon Kickoff” Saturday, said the frustration among USC fans runs deeper than the scoreboard.

“These fans are frustrated with the culture,” Klatt said.

Former USC quarterback and Heisman winner Matt Leinart was blunter about the program’s current trajectory.

“They’re stuck in the mud with nowhere to go,” Leinart said.

Klatt cited a specific moment from the Oregon game as emblematic of a larger problem: a targeting penalty on USC safety Desman Stephens II, whose hit knocked Oregon quarterback Dante Moore out of the game. Stephens was seen celebrating and exchanging high-fives with teammates while Oregon’s medical staff attended to Moore.

“They’re frustrated with Desman Stephens, and there was nobody that walked up to him and said, ‘Hey, we’re not going to do that anymore,'” Klatt said.

Despite the mounting pressure, Klatt urged caution about the idea that cutting ties with Riley would solve USC’s problems. He said the real cost of a coaching change extends well beyond Riley’s own buyout.

“I’m just going to throw up a bit of a caution flag,” Klatt said. “There are a lot of people talking about, ‘We need to replace Lincoln Riley.’ It’s not just the $70 million that you’re going to have to spend to buy out Lincoln Riley. You’re going to have to buy out the staff. You’re going to have to buy out the next coach from his contract. Plus, you’re going to have to build an elite roster. It’s really like $100 to $120 million that you’ll have to spend to make a change.”

Klatt pointed to Penn State as a cautionary example. The Nittany Lions moved on from James Franklin last season after coming within reach of the College Football Playoff National Championship the year before, and have since struggled, including a 34-13 loss to Northwestern.

“Look at what happened last night,” Klatt said. “There was a program that was this close to the mountaintop, a national finalist, lost a couple games that they thought they should win, and now they just got their head kicked in by Northwestern at Ryan Field all because they felt they needed to make a change.”

USC entered this season with the nation’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class, a group Klatt said could be put at risk by a coaching change, as rival programs circle the Trojans’ young talent.

“All the best coaches in the nation are praying that USC makes a change,” Klatt said. “Because all the best coaches — Dan Lanning, Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, Lane Kiffin — all of their GMs will be parked in Los Angeles looking at [USC’s young players].”

Klatt singled out freshmen Luke Wafle, Kaden Dixon-Wyatt, Trent Mosley and tight end Mark Bowman as players who could draw interest from other programs if USC were to part ways with Riley.

“I think they have one of the elite freshman classes in all of college football,” Klatt said.

Weighing the financial and competitive risks together, Klatt concluded that a coaching change may not actually leave USC better positioned.

“When I look at a change,” Klatt said, “I don’t think it actually makes them better going forward.”