OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to leave oil production targets unchanged for November, a decision the producer group’s core members made in a brief online meeting, extending a pause in output policy that analysts expect to hold until next year.
The seven core members behind the move—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—make up the heart of the broader OPEC+ alliance that also includes Russia among its allied producers.
Gulf members of the group have been pumping well below their official targets as the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to disrupt exports, with flows fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months.
“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
Prices had eased on Friday after European leaders agreed to a request from President Trump to release diesel reserves. Even so, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel—sharply higher than the roughly $73 a barrel it traded at before the Iran war began in late February.
The conflict has also pushed back OPEC+’s capacity review, a process that will determine member nations’ 2027 output quotas. Industry sources told Reuters last week that the war has made it difficult to estimate future production potential, stalling the review.
OPEC+ had been raising output targets through much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but the bulk of those increases never materialized on the ground because of the war.
The seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 bpd from July, but still about 5 million bpd short of prewar levels recorded in February, according to OPEC data.
About 2 million bpd of output cuts remain in place across most OPEC+ members, and any changes to those arrangements are unlikely before 2027, pending the outcome of the capacity review.
A separate body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also convened Sunday to review market conditions, though it has no authority to set policy. The seven core members are scheduled to meet again on Nov. 1.
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