Obama Tells Donors Democratic Senate Leads Could Vanish on Election Day

Former President Barack Obama told Democratic donors in Northern Virginia on Wednesday that his party should not assume it will win Senate races where polls currently show it ahead, warning that narrow leads could evaporate by election night.

Obama spoke at a fireside chat held as a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), appearing alongside DSCC Vice Chair Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE). The event raised roughly $3.6 million for Democrats, according to the DSCC.

“There are states right now in play that I would not have imagined being in play,” Obama said during the discussion.

He cited several contests drawing unexpected attention, including Texas, where polling shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton. “If you had told me — and I know I’m the hope guy — but if you had told me that the polling currently shows James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton … I would have said, eh, I don’t think so,” Obama said.

He also pointed to Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a tight race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running against Republican Mike Collins.

Despite those favorable numbers, Obama cautioned Democrats against overconfidence.

“All these races that are showing we’ve got a two- or three-point lead or it’s a toss-up, we could end up losing all of them by two points. It’s within the margin of error.”

According to the Washington Post, Obama told the gathering that winning control of the Senate matters beyond individual races because of its role in the judiciary.

“If you get two more years of Trump acting with impunity, along with additional judicial appointments, so that at some point the scales may tip in the direction where he’s got carte blanche, you now have a very serious danger to democracy in addition to just bad policy.”

Obama described the judiciary as currently “bent but not broken” amid what he called a “moment of challenge to our democracy,” adding, “We have seen it hold the line in some important areas. To the extent it has not, it’s been the Supreme Court.”

He also addressed tensions within the party between its further-left and establishment wings, arguing that Democrats remain unified on core principles. “What I can say is that I expect Democrats to stand for treating everybody with dignity and respect,” Obama said.