A new poll shows Minnesota’s races for governor and U.S. Senate are effectively tied, a striking result in a state still reeling from a sprawling public-assistance fraud scandal.
The survey, conducted by Co/efficient on September 14-15, found Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar leading Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth 47 percent to 45 percent in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Tim Walz. In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan led Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, 43 percent to 42 percent. Both margins fall within the poll’s stated margin of error of plus or minus 3.38 percentage points.
The same survey of 833 likely voters found Republicans narrowly ahead on a generic Senate ballot, 47 percent to 46 percent, and put President Donald Trump’s job approval at 37 percent, with 55 percent disapproving. Co/efficient, a Republican-aligned polling firm, says its survey series is conducted independently and is not sponsored by any candidate or party committee.
Minnesota Republican strategist Dustin Grage, president of Honeyhive Strategies and a Townhall columnist, circulated the numbers as evidence the state is competitive for the GOP.
“Minnesota is in play for Republicans up and down the ballot,” Grage wrote.
Other polls tell a different story
The Co/efficient numbers stand apart from other recent surveys, which have generally shown Klobuchar with a comfortable lead. The RealClearPolling average currently has her ahead by 11.5 points, 50 percent to 38.5 percent, and rates the governor’s race “Safe Dem.”
An Emerson College Polling survey put Klobuchar ahead of Demuth 51 percent to 38 percent, with independents breaking for the senator by 27 points. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the pattern held across matchups.
“Independent voters in the race for Governor support Amy Klobuchar against potential Republican opponents, by 27 points against State Rep. Demuth, and 40 points against Mike Lindell,” Kimball said.
A Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll found a narrower gap, with Klobuchar at 48 percent and Demuth at 40 percent, though it also recorded a sizable share of undecided voters and noted that Demuth performed better against Klobuchar than other Republicans tested. A TIPP Insights poll completed September 2 had Klobuchar ahead 49 percent to 40 percent.
A scandal-scarred backdrop
The polling comes as Minnesota Democrats continue to face fallout from fraud allegations tied to Medicaid and pandemic-era aid programs, with hundreds of millions of dollars in welfare funds allegedly stolen. Gov. Tim Walz abandoned his reelection bid in January as the scandal widened, and Klobuchar entered the governor’s race days later.
Demuth, who has made the fraud investigations a centerpiece of her tenure as House Speaker, won the Republican primary in August, defeating Trump-endorsed MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell.
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