Trump Gaining Significant Ground With Hispanic Voters in Key States

Former President Donald Trump is poised to outperform his 2020 numbers among Hispanic voters in several key battleground states, according to a recent survey.

In 2020, Trump secured 32% of the Hispanic vote compared to President Joe Biden’s 65%.

However, a new TelevisaUnivision survey reveals that Trump is now on track to take 39% of the Hispanic vote, while Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to be his Democratic rival in 2024, would take 55%.

This marks a 17% shift in Trump’s favor since the last election, suggesting a significant realignment within this crucial voting bloc.

The survey, conducted between September 17 and September 22, questioned 2,200 likely Hispanic voters across battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The results indicate that Trump has made notable gains among Hispanic voters in almost all of these states, except for Michigan, where his support has slightly declined.

Hispanic voters have historically leaned toward the Democratic Party, but the latest data suggests a growing affinity for Trump, particularly on key issues like the economy and immigration.

Nationwide, 45% of likely Hispanic voters still identify as Democrats, while 22% align with the GOP. Interestingly, 33% of Hispanic voters consider themselves independents, making them a critical swing demographic in the 2024 election.

Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters appear most prominent in states like Nevada and Arizona. In Nevada, Trump has seen a 14-point increase compared to his 2020 performance, and in Arizona, he is up by 13%.

His numbers have also surged in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania, where he is up by 12%, and Georgia, where he has gained 9%. These increases could prove decisive in states that were closely contested during the 2020 election.

One of the key factors contributing to Trump’s improved standing with Hispanic voters is their focus on the economy and jobs.

According to the survey, 26% of respondents identified the economy as their most important issue, followed by 13% who pointed to immigration and border security.

These issues have traditionally played to Trump’s strengths, as he has consistently emphasized economic growth and stricter immigration policies throughout his political career.

On the other hand, issues like abortion and climate change, which are typically strong drivers of Democratic support, ranked lower in importance among Hispanic voters.

Only 12% cited abortion or women’s rights as their top concern, and just 1% named climate change as the most important issue, signaling a potential challenge for Harris and the Democrats to rally Hispanic support around these causes.

Despite Trump’s gains, the survey also highlights a clear divide in how Hispanic voters perceive the two candidates. Harris maintains a higher approval rating among this group, with 55% approving of her performance compared to Trump’s 43%.

However, 56% of respondents disapprove of Trump, while Harris’s disapproval rating sits at 41%. These contrasting figures indicate that while Trump has improved his standing with Hispanic voters, he still faces challenges in winning over a larger share of the bloc.

Favorability ratings for both candidates reflect similar dynamics. Harris is viewed favorably by 58% of likely Hispanic voters, while 39% hold an unfavorable opinion of her.

Trump, on the other hand, has a 41% favorability rating and a 57% unfavorable rating, showing that while he has gained ground, many Hispanic voters remain skeptical of his candidacy.

Interestingly, the shift toward Trump among Hispanic voters appears to be limited primarily to his candidacy and does not extend as strongly to other Republican candidates down the ballot.

For instance, in Arizona, 42% of Hispanic voters support Trump, while only 35% back the Republican Senate candidate.

Similarly, in Wisconsin, Trump garnered 38% of Hispanic support compared to 33% for the GOP Senate candidate. Nevada shows a similar trend, with 39% backing Trump and 33% supporting the Republican Senate candidate.

Michigan stands out as an exception to Trump’s gains. In the Wolverine State, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has dropped by 9% since 2020.

Interestingly, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan outperformed Trump by 1%, securing 36% of the Hispanic vote.

This suggests that while Trump has made strides in many battlegrounds, his appeal among Hispanic voters is not uniform across the country.

As the 2024 election approaches, the growing support for Trump among Hispanic voters could have significant implications for the outcome, particularly in closely contested states. Trump’s focus on economic issues and immigration appears to be resonating with a substantial portion of the Hispanic electorate, helping him close the gap with the Democrats in key regions.

At the same time, the survey suggests that Harris still holds an edge with Hispanic voters overall, particularly in terms of favorability and approval.

However, the data highlights a potential vulnerability for the Democratic Party, as Trump’s improved numbers signal a shift in the political landscape that could influence the outcome of the 2024 race.

In a nation where Hispanic voters are becoming an increasingly influential demographic, their shifting allegiances could be a game-changer in battleground states and, ultimately, the overall election.

Whether Trump can maintain and build on these gains remains to be seen, but the results of this survey suggest that the former president is making headway where it matters most.