Republicans Face Narrowest House Majority in Nearly a Century

The Republican Party is heading into the next congressional session with a historic challenge: one of the slimmest House majorities in nearly a century. With vote counting now complete in California, the GOP’s majority stands at a razor-thin 220-215, leaving virtually no margin for error.

The final blow to the GOP’s hopes of a more secure majority came in California’s Orange County, where Democrat Derek Tran narrowly defeated Republican incumbent Michelle Steel. Tran’s victory was declared just before Thanksgiving after three weeks of ballot counting, marking another Democratic gain in a state where ballot harvesting and extended vote collection practices have become the norm.

CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten noted that if current projections hold, the Republican advantage could become the smallest House majority in nearly 90 years. “This is as narrow as it gets,” Enten said, emphasizing the precarious position Republicans find themselves in.

The situation becomes even more tenuous as President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to nominate three prominent Republican House members—Elise Stefanik, Matt Gaetz, and Mike Waltz—to his administration. If confirmed, their departures would reduce the GOP majority to just 217 seats, leaving the party with a mere two-seat advantage when Congress convenes in January.

This slim margin means Republicans cannot afford to lose even a single vote on key legislation. A single defection could derail their agenda, granting Democrats an opportunity to block bills and stall conservative priorities.

California’s extended vote collection and ballot harvesting practices have drawn sharp criticism from conservatives. Critics argue that these practices favor Democrats by allowing prolonged vote collection periods and creating opportunities for alleged irregularities.

Republicans like Michelle Steel have been particularly vulnerable to these tactics. In her Orange County district, Tran’s victory underscores the challenges GOP candidates face in California’s evolving electoral landscape.

The narrow majority places significant pressure on Republican leadership, particularly on Speaker-designate Kevin McCarthy. Maintaining party unity will be essential for advancing any legislation in a deeply divided House.

Complicating matters further, Democrats are expected to fiercely oppose Republican initiatives, emboldened by their strong showing in the midterms and the GOP’s slim margin. Republicans must also navigate internal divisions, as moderate and hardline factions within the party often clash over priorities.

Harry Enten: My goodness gracious. Yes, the Republicans are going to control the House of Representatives. But if all the current results hold up, we’re looking at a record-small majority after the Novembers in the last 90 years.

You have to go all the way back to the Herbert Hoover administration to find an even smaller majority after the November elections.

We’re talking about the Republicans with 220 seats and the Democrats with 215 if the current House results hold. Keep in mind that this will drop lower if Stefanik, Waltz, or others like Matt Gaetz leave Congress.

CNN reporter: Talk to me. This is the best-case scenario for Republicans, at least for the next few weeks or months. Where could it go?

Harry Enten: Where could it go? It could shrink even further. Let’s say Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz resigned. We could be looking at—get this—Republicans at 217, the Democrats at 215, and I went all the way back. Look, this is crazy. This is crazy, right? Because all it means is Democrats at 215 plus one GOP seat could tank the entire thing because then both sides would be at 216 seats, John…

…You might have noticed in my last answer, I was so excited I nearly got ahead of myself. How historically unprecedented it is. I love history. Sometimes just one majority member could sink a bill by voting with the minority in the last 100 years plus. This, possibly 2025, with the likely resignations from the House. And that’s it. It’s literally the only time in the last 100 years, assuming, of course, all members vote.

So the bottom line is, look, the results from the November elections weren’t exactly good for Democrats, but this is a shining light for them. They really did hold the Republican majority down. And given the likely resignations that are coming, that House of Representatives for the Republicans—that House majority—is going to be record small.

This is why cheating matters. This is why Republicans must continue to battle election fraud. This could be disastrous for the Trump agenda.

Via Citizen Free Press and CNN:

REPUBLICANS HAVE SMALLEST HOUSE MAJORITY IN 90 YEARS

1) 220-215 will quickly be 217-215 with gaetz, stefanik, waltz.

2) If they lose 1 vote on any bill, it is 216-216 and the bill dies.pic.twitter.com/iIzHqQpNIX

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 29, 2024

As the GOP prepares to take control of the House, the challenges of governing with such a slim majority are already apparent. Every vote will count, making party cohesion and strategic planning more critical than ever.

The narrow majority also raises questions about the future of Republican electoral strategies, particularly in battleground states like California. If the GOP hopes to maintain or expand its majority in future elections, addressing challenges posed by ballot harvesting and vote collection practices will be key.

For now, Republicans face an uphill battle, knowing that even the loss of one vote could have far-reaching consequences for their legislative agenda.