Data Guru Says U.S. Election ‘No Longer Toss-Up,’ 65% Chance Trump Wins.

The well-known data expert and ex-leader of the election analysis website FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, has introduced his presidential election model for 2024.

According to Silver’s analysis, the upcoming election between 81-year-old Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump is not evenly balanced, as the model indicates a greater than 65 percent likelihood of Trump emerging victorious in November.

LOOK:

Silver’s belief that the election is no longer a toss-up, but rather leaning towards Trump, is based on the discrepancy between national and state polls.

While national polls indicate a close popular vote race, state polls suggest a shift away from Biden.

He writes: “…if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not just one of them.”

He notes that while the three Rust Belt state electorates “are pretty heavily correlated, they aren’t perfectly correlated”—meaning sweeping all three is relatively difficult. ” In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54 percent of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32 percent of simulations,” Silver contends.

Silver couches his model, noting that while there is an “[arbitrageable] difference between, say, a 50 percent chance of an event happening and a 60 percent chance,” even the probability of something happening at “a 60 percent chance nevertheless implies a high degree of uncertainty.” He goes on to explain that while the race remains close, it has reached a point where he no longer considers it a toss-up between the two candidates.

Interestingly, the former New York Times journalist and data scientist is refreshingly honest about how preference bias can impact election models—though he claims he has sought to avoid this to the extent he can. “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver writes regarding his predictive model.

Nate Silver’s presidential election model for 2024 presents a sobering analysis of the upcoming race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

His assessment, based on a nuanced interpretation of national and state polls, paints a picture of a shifting electoral landscape that favors Trump.

Silver’s candid acknowledgment of the inherent uncertainty in his model underscores the complexity of predicting political outcomes.

The focus on the pivotal Rust Belt states highlights the intricacies involved in Biden’s path to victory and elucidates the challenges he faces in securing a win.

Silver’s recognition of the impact of personal preferences on his analytical process adds an important layer of transparency to his work, emphasizing the need for objectivity in data-driven analysis.