The Central Intelligence Agency generated analyses from late September to early October that included imprecise alerts of potential violence from Gaza, but did not anticipate the extensive aggression Hamas militants directed towards Israel shortly after, according to The New York Times.
Reports compiled by analysts using intelligence gathered from the CIA and its partner organizations in response to the recent protests in Gaza that could potentially result in violence, were reported by The New York Times, citing knowledgeable officials.
However, given that the CIA has not placed much focus on the Gaza Strip over recent years due to other perceived more urgent or dire threats, this could explain why U.S. and Israeli intelligence had no prior warning of the attack on October 7th.
The United States intelligence community’s annual threat report last mentioned Gaza in 2013, according to the New York Times. Hamas has not been included since 2017.
On September 28th of this year, it was reported that there was a possibility of Hamas launching rockets into Israel over a period of days. A further analysis on October 5th provided additional details regarding this potential action.
The Oct 5 product was included in the regular intelligence reports circulated among Congress and policymakers, yet it failed to reach senior officials.
It was not deemed an immediate threat. In the months preceding these reports, clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants had increased, resulting in a heightened potential for violence along the Israel-Gaza border.
Similar reports were compiled over the past year as this potential fluctuated.
Recent reports from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) have underscored the deteriorating economic conditions in the Gaza Strip.
According to The New York Times, citing unnamed officials, these frustrations over Israel’s restrictions on border crossings could lead to assaults against Israel.
On October 5th, Hamas reported that two of their fighters were killed in a confrontation with Israeli forces. When queried by The New York Times about classified documents, both the CIA and White House declined to issue an on-the-record comment.
No reports indicated that ground and air intrusions into Israel of the magnitude seen in Saturday’s incursion were imminent, according to the New York Times.
Israeli authorities have reported that at least 1,500 Hamas militants and Palestinian supporters crossed into its borders with weapons, engaging in violence against civilians following rocket attacks.
U.S. and Israeli intelligence seem to have been unaware or disregarded potential evidence of preparations for such an attack, leaving it unclear as to how they could have overlooked this information.
The result was devastating; over 1,200 Israelis were killed and up to 150 taken hostage by Hamas forces.