With Election Day underway, conservative commentators are pushing back against discouragement among Republican voters, arguing that gloomy polling and recent court losses in election-integrity cases should not be reasons to stay home.
A RedState column published Monday by writer Jen Van Laar described widespread demoralization among conservatives heading into the vote, citing a string of courtroom defeats in election-integrity cases and what she called uninspiring candidates in some races. Van Laar, who recently moved to Northern Virginia, said she nearly skipped same-day voter registration herself before deciding she could not urge others to vote if she had not done so.
The column pointed to The New York Times’ final NYT/Siena poll, which reported a “blue surge” in battleground states but also found that white Democrats responded to the poll at a rate about 30% higher than white Republicans — a gap the Times itself said was slightly wider than in 2020. The same polling found that late-deciding voters were breaking Republican by 9 points.
Weighting is not a panacea. That’s because nonresponse bias can run much deeper than what can be observed and corrected in the data. A poll might be weighted to have the right number of Trump supporters but still have the wrong kind of Trump supporters — and particularly the kind of Trump supporter who might be voting Democratic.
The column argued that even polls framed as encouraging for Republicans should be read with skepticism, suggesting pollsters have an interest in depressing conservative turnout.
Turnout in heavily Democratic areas was also a focus. Roxanne Hoge, chair of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, was quoted arguing that Republicans need to match the organizing discipline of groups like the Democratic Socialists of America and the Working Families Party, which she said turn out every voter regardless of how safe a district appears.
The Left understands incremental wins. The left of the left (DSA, Working Families Party) gets it too. They turn out every voter. Time for the right @RNC @GOP to do the same—yes, even in California. We aren’t a lost cause. We are an abandoned cause. Change that today.
The piece argued that California Republicans have ceded ground over successive election cycles as voters conclude statewide races are unwinnable, discouraging investment in the state’s down-ballot contests even as Democratic candidates such as Gov. Gavin Newsom have won by wide margins.
On the quality of this cycle’s Republican candidates, Twitchy editor Sam J was quoted making the case for backing the party’s nominees regardless of personal appeal.
I don’t care if your local Republican is a maniac who once tried to arm wrestle a gorilla in a vat of lime Jello (ok, that might be a bit much, but still) or a perfectly normal human who just wants the border closed and gas under four bucks. Any one of them is still better than any Democrat, and I’m not even saying that for a bit.
The column closed by invoking a line from the late radio host Rush Limbaugh — “It’s never going to be time to panic” — as a rallying point for conservative voters heading to the polls in Virginia, California, Texas, New York and other states on Election Day.
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