Confidence among U.S. homebuilders has fallen to its lowest point since June 2012, according to data released Monday, even as HUD Secretary Scott Turner insisted the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda is the right prescription for the country’s housing affordability crisis.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped three points to 29 in October, down from 32 in September, as builders continue to contend with mortgage rates above 7 percent, rising construction and energy costs, and softening buyer demand.
In a statement provided exclusively to Breitbart News, Turner argued that regulation, not market forces alone, is the core obstacle to affordability. “America cannot regulate its way to housing affordability, which is why the Trump Administration is clearing barriers to enable builders to build, buyers to buy, and ensure local communities have a voice,” Turner said. “The Trump Administration has taken numerous, bold actions to address the housing market challenges caused by excessive regulation, high construction costs, and barriers to new housing supply to unlock the American Dream of homeownership for our citizens.”
All Three Index Components Slide
Every major component of the HMI declined this month. Current sales conditions slipped two points to 33, sales expectations for the next six months fell five points to 32, and prospective buyer traffic dropped five points to 18 — the weakest traffic reading since April 2012, outside of the brief pandemic shock in April 2020.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the numbers reflect a market squeezed from multiple directions. “Housing remains squeezed by supply-side constraints and significant affordability challenges,” Dietz said. “Demand persists, but higher mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and weaker consumer confidence are keeping more buyers on the sidelines.”
The strain is also showing up in pricing behavior. Forty-three percent of builders cut home prices in October, the highest share recorded since 2020. The average price cut held at 6 percent for a seventh straight month, and 65 percent of builders reported using sales incentives — the 19th consecutive month that at least 60 percent of builders have had to sweeten deals to move inventory.
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens pointed to financing and material costs as ongoing pressures, while crediting federal regulatory efforts for providing some relief. “Though builders are also contending with higher costs for construction loans, building materials and diesel, the Trump administration’s efforts to advance regulatory reform are helping to ease some of the cost pressures they face,” Owens said. Owens also noted that more than a third of builders reported immigration enforcement activity in their markets over the past month, which he said delayed construction and kept legal workers away from job sites.
Builder confidence has now fallen from a 2026 high of 38 in March to 29 in October, remaining well below the 50-point threshold that separates favorable from unfavorable sentiment.
The Administration’s Deregulatory Case
Officials have long argued that regulatory costs are baked into the price of a new home. The median U.S. home price sits around $400,000, with roughly $100,000 of that attributable to regulation, according to the administration — meaning deregulation could, in theory, bring that median price closer to $300,000 even with mortgage rates where they are.
Trump has signed a trio of executive orders this year aimed at that target. Executive Order 14394, signed March 13, directs federal agencies to review rules affecting residential construction — environmental permitting, energy-efficiency mandates, and manufactured-housing restrictions among them — and tasks HUD with recommending ways for state and local governments to speed up permitting and cut fees. That order underpins HUD’s “Build More, Faster, Cheaper” agenda.
The same day, Trump signed Executive Order 14393 to expand mortgage credit access by easing regulatory burdens on lenders, encouraging smaller community banks to participate more actively and pushing for streamlined appraisal and digital-closing procedures.
Earlier, on January 20, Executive Order 14376 directed agencies to limit large institutional investors from using federally backed programs to buy up single-family homes that individual buyers might otherwise purchase, with carve-outs for qualifying build-to-rent developments. The order also calls for legislation to further restrict such institutional purchases.
HUD has taken its own administrative steps as well. The agency rescinded requirements tied to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code, a move it says could save families up to $30,000 per home. And on October 17, HUD revised FHA multifamily financing rules to let qualifying communities of single-family homes, duplexes, triplexes, and manufactured homes tap FHA-insured financing — a change intended to spur more construction and widen supply.
Whether those measures will be enough to reverse the slide in builder sentiment remains an open question, as the industry continues to navigate a combination of high borrowing costs, labor constraints, and cautious buyers.
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