Alternative for Germany (AfD) took the largest share of the vote in Sunday’s state parliamentary election in Saxony-Anhalt, finishing first with roughly 44.6 percent of ballots cast. It is the first time in 77 years that a party widely described as far-right has won a plurality in a German election.
The result more than doubles AfD’s 2021 showing in the state and marks the party’s strongest performance anywhere in its history. With 95.1 percent of electoral districts counted, the tally stood at: AfD 44.6% (+23.8 points), CDU 16.9% (-20.2), SPD 9.1% (+0.7), Greens 8.9% (+3.0), Left Party 8.4% (-2.6), Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 5.2% (new), Free Democrats (FDP) 2.5% (-3.9), and Free Voters 1.2%.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led in the state by Minister-President Sven Schulze and nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, saw its support collapse by nearly 20 points to about 18 percent, finishing almost 30 points behind AfD in a state the party had long considered safe territory. The FDP, part of the current federal governing coalition and holder of seven seats in the outgoing state parliament, fell below the five-percent threshold and will hold no seats at all.
Voter turnout rose sharply, climbing from 60 percent in 2021 to more than 75 percent this year.
Governing Math Still Unresolved
Whether AfD can actually form a government remains uncertain. Early projections show the party falling just short of an absolute majority of seats. Saxony-Anhalt AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund has said he will only govern with a full majority and has ruled out leading a minority government. Meanwhile, the CDU and SPD have refused to enter a coalition with AfD, which Germany’s domestic intelligence service has classified as “right-wing extremist.”
If no party can assemble a governing majority, the sitting government would remain in caretaker status, unable to command support on most matters, potentially through the next scheduled election. Alternatively, the parliament could dissolve itself and call a new vote. A key deadline falls on October 6, when more clarity is expected.
One wrinkle could still shift the outcome: the newly formed BSW is sitting right at the 5.2 percent threshold. If a final canvass puts the party below 5 percent, it loses its seats entirely and those votes get redistributed to other parties — a scenario that could push AfD past the 50 percent mark needed to elect a state president and form a government outright.
Barring that redistribution, a CDU–SPD–Green–Left coalition remains numerically possible, despite the ideological distance between those parties, and would keep AfD out of ministries even without producing a stable government.
What Comes Next
AfD has been building strength in Saxony-Anhalt for years, so the outcome itself was not a surprise to observers — its scale was. Five states, all in the former East Germany, are considered vulnerable to similar AfD gains. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern holds its own state election in two weeks, which will offer the next test of whether Sunday’s result can be repeated elsewhere.
The vote is also being read as a verdict on Chancellor Merz’s leadership. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said she expects Merz to be “replaced before Christmas” and predicted early federal elections would follow. CDU figures were reportedly already losing confidence in Merz following a botched cabinet reshuffle this summer, and his approval ratings have been at record lows. Pressure on his leadership is expected to intensify if the CDU performs poorly in other regional elections this month.
The result underscores a broader shift in German politics: the long-standing arrangement in which the CDU and SPD alternated power, with smaller centrist parties like the FDP as junior partners, appears increasingly unable to contain the country’s political fragmentation.
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