Data compiled by transgender advocacy organizations shows that violent deaths of transgender people in the United States have declined sharply over the past several years, according to reporting by the Boston Globe.
Advocates for Trans Equality reports that violent deaths fell nearly 50 percent, from 53 in 2023 to 27 in 2025. The Human Rights Campaign’s own tracking shows a similar trend, with a peak of 47 deaths in 2021 falling to 27 last year.
The Globe also reported that FBI hate crimes data show a decline in reported abuse of transgender people between 2024 and 2025.
Separately, an analysis from the Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think tank, found that transgender people have a lower murder rate than the general population. That analysis has not been publicly refuted by advocacy groups tracking anti-trans violence.
A Journalist’s Take on the Numbers
The Globe piece was written by David Mastio, who describes himself as an ally to transgender people, including a family member. Mastio argued that the persistent messaging from LGBTQ rights groups warning of an ongoing crisis is not supported by the data and may be doing harm to the community it aims to protect.
I care about trans people, and I love one in particular in my close family. What LGBTQ rights groups are doing to these folks with this unrelenting message that death is waiting for them around every corner is not healthy. They have their constituents living in fear when the best numbers we have show that the supposed “epidemic,” “onslaught,” or “genocide” against trans people is not as potent as they suggest and is, in fact, lessening. That’s good news. We should let some of the most vulnerable people in our society know.
According to the Globe’s reporting, advocacy groups have pushed back on drawing conclusions from the declining numbers, arguing that the data is incomplete because families and authorities sometimes misname or misgender victims, making it difficult to track the true scope of violence against transgender people.
The Globe report does not attribute a specific cause for the decline, though it notes the drop coincides with a broader decrease in violent crime nationally during the period covered.
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