New York Fed Survey Shows Americans Less Worried About Losing Jobs, More Worried About Prices

Americans grew more confident in September about their job security and their odds of finding new work if they needed it, even as they braced for higher prices in the months ahead, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Wednesday.

The bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that the perceived probability of losing a job within the next 12 months fell to 13.5 percent, the lowest reading since December 2024. Respondents also said they were more likely to find another job quickly if laid off, and more likely to quit a job voluntarily.

The average perceived probability of finding new work within three months of a job loss rose to 46.1 percent from 45.4 percent, pushing above its trailing 12-month average. The expected probability of voluntarily quitting climbed to 19.9 percent from 19.5 percent.

The drop in job-loss fears was concentrated among respondents aged 40 to 60 and those in households earning more than $100,000 a year. The rise in expected quits was driven by respondents over 40 and those without a bachelor’s degree.

Consumers also lowered their expectations for a rise in the national unemployment rate over the next year, with that measure falling to 43.9 percent from 44.4 percent.

Income and Spending Expectations Rise

Households grew more optimistic about their finances alongside the brighter jobs outlook. Median expected household income growth rose to 3.1 percent, the highest reading since February 2025. Expected spending growth climbed to 5.5 percent, the highest since May 2023, with gains reported across age groups and education levels.

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent, dropping below its trailing average.

Inflation Expectations Climb

Despite the improving employment picture, consumers expect prices to rise faster in the near term. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9 percent, up from 3.6 percent in August, marking the highest reading since May 2023. Three-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3 percent, while five-year expectations held steady at 3 percent.

The New York Fed noted that, despite improved job and payment expectations, households’ assessments of their own finances actually worsened. Larger shares of respondents said they were worse off than a year earlier and expected their financial situation to deteriorate further over the next year, a result the bank linked to households’ recent experience with persistent inflation and their rising inflation expectations.

The survey was conducted from September 1 through September 30 among a rotating panel of roughly 1,300 household heads.