The state of Alaska looks poised for a strong Republican showing in 2026, according to recent polling aggregates and local momentum. With Senator Dan Sullivan defending his seat, Representative Nick Begich III up for reelection, a new governor to be chosen, and a ballot question on ranked-choice voting, the dynamics are complicated but favorable for GOP candidates under current forecasts. Pollsmax’s modeling gives Republicans a clear path to taking all three statewide offices, though the election will still run under ranked-choice rules this year. Voters and party operatives in Alaska are watching closely as strategy and turnout will decide whether predictions hold up at the ballot box.
Alaska’s political scene has always had its own rules, and ranked-choice voting amplified that uniqueness into real unpredictability. Ranked-choice was a factor in Mary Peltola’s one-term win for the at-large House seat and helped keep Liza Murkowski in the Senate longer than many expected. From a Republican perspective, seeing RCV continue to produce odd outcomes has been frustrating, but the 2026 polling picture is offering a clearer path back to consistent GOP control.
On the ballot this cycle: Senator Dan Sullivan is up for reelection, Representative Nick Begich III is defending the at-large seat, the governor’s office is open because Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and Alaskans will again vote on repealing ranked-choice voting. Pollsmax, a polling aggregate, has run a model of 100,000 simulations incorporating national and state polls, race ratings, and past election results. Their conclusion is blunt: the company is predicting a Republican sweep of the three statewide offices, a result many conservatives in Alaska would welcome.
Polling models are never perfect, and RCV makes everything harder to forecast because voters don’t always follow neat preference patterns. In the first practical RCV statewide contest here, some voters made it clear they would only mark a single name. One voter was overheard saying, “I don’t care what they put on the ballot, I’m just voting for (Nick/Sarah) and that’s it.” That sort of single-choice behavior can upend even the smartest simulations and introduces a wild card into the equation.
The repeal campaign for ranked-choice voting is a critical subplot. A YES vote would strip RCV out and return Alaska to a straightforward partisan primary system based on one voter, one vote. The last repeal attempt came painfully close, losing by just a bit over 700 votes out of more than 320,000 cast. The pro-repeal side was also outspent and faced heavy outside spending against it, which makes organizers think they can close that narrow gap if they run a disciplined, on-the-ground campaign this fall.
Even if repeal succeeds in November, it won’t affect the 2026 contests since the election will still be administered under RCV procedures. That means Republicans have to navigate the current rules for now while also making the case for restoring traditional primaries in future cycles. For many Alaska conservatives, that’s attractive because it would blunt the influence of low-information splits and make outcomes more predictable in favor of clear party choices.
Looking beyond 2026, a successful repeal could reshape the 2028 landscape, which includes Senator Murkowski’s potential reelection bid. There’s talk among some Republicans that Governor Dunleavy might challenge Murkowski in a primary once the old system returns. For conservatives in the state, restoring normal partisan primaries would give a better shot at replacing senators who have drifted away from core GOP principles.
Practical campaigning still matters more than models. Pollsmax’s simulations are encouraging, but Alaska’s voter behavior under RCV and its unique electorate mean that small mistakes can have outsized consequences. Ground game, messaging, and turnout will determine if the theoretical Republican advantage translates into actual wins at the ballot box this fall.
It’s early in the cycle, and anyone who has followed Alaska politics knows tides can shift quickly. Still, the combination of strong polling aggregates, the GOP’s renewed organization in the state, and a likely close fight over RCV repeal creates a realistic opportunity for Republicans to reclaim all three key statewide offices. That outcome would be a major win for Alaska conservatives and a signal that traditional partisan primaries might be back in style here.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Add comment