A new NBC poll of registered voters finds the public trusts Republicans more than Democrats on both immigration and the economy, even though nearly three in four voters say they are dissatisfied with the current economy under President Donald Trump.
The poll, conducted October 28-30, shows Republicans with an 11-point advantage over Democrats on handling migration and a 2-point edge on the economy.
The migration advantage comes despite heavy media coverage critical of Trump’s deportation policies, including stories focused on migrants being removed who have not committed violent crimes. Polling has consistently shown solid majorities of Americans support deportation of illegal migrants regardless of criminal history.
That dynamic has played out alongside the rising national profile of pro-migration Democratic politicians with immigrant or Muslim backgrounds, including Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed in Michigan and Rep. Ilhan Omar in Minnesota. Republicans have also pushed to restrict legal immigration programs for white-collar workers, such as the H-1B visa program, which critics say has displaced American college graduates from the job market.
Generic Ballot Favors Democrats, But With Caveats
Despite the GOP’s lead on migration and the economy, the NBC poll shows Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, 52 percent to 45 percent. That advantage, however, may be concentrated in districts already held by Democrats rather than reflecting a uniform national shift.
Notably, the generic ballot lead does not translate into greater confidence in the Democratic Party itself. Only 29 percent of voters expressed support for Democrats, compared to 38 percent for Republicans.
Still, Democrats appear positioned for strong turnout. Trump’s approval stands at 40 percent support against 60 percent opposition, according to the poll.
Economic Dissatisfaction Drives the Numbers
The underlying driver of the Democrats’ generic ballot advantage appears to be economic frustration. Barely one in four voters say they are satisfied with the current state of the economy, while nearly three in four say they are dissatisfied, according to NBC’s polling analysis.
Rising costs for everyday goods, including gasoline prices affected by tensions surrounding Iran, were cited as contributing to that dissatisfaction even as inflation persists alongside what NBC described as a fast-growing economy.
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